蔡珠兒
【快富之夜】
香港和蘇格蘭，天南地北，看來不相干，其實頗有牽連。歷任港督有不少蘇格蘭人，雖已任滿返鄉，名字卻還留在香港 ，港島有麥理浩徑，西貢有衛奕信徑。
港九街道也多蘇格蘭地名，中環有愛丁堡廣場，上環有鴨巴甸街（Aberdeen Street），旺角有快富街（Fife Street）。Fife在愛丁堡和鄧迪（Dundee ）之間，「快富」是粵語，另譯「法夫」，多年前我去過一 次，但不是專程，是意外迷路。
那回在愛丁堡租了車，和老汪長征高地，租車公司沒自排車，清一色是手排檔，我不熟，頻頻熄火出狀況，不時卡在陡 坡。老汪只會騎馬，不會開車，坐在旁邊乾著急。
好在愈開愈順，縱情馳騁，玩遍各地，最後一天逛完St.Andrews，打算開回愛丁堡，卻迷了路，七彎八拐山 窮水盡，闖進一個從沒聽過的地方，Fife，這是哪裡啊 ？眼看天色將黑，老汪說，趕緊找個民宿歇腿過夜。
開進一個有人煙的聚落，好不容易碰見一個人在蹓狗，搖下車窗打聽，他搖頭，說這一帶沒有民宿，要開到城裡才有旅 館。我們很失望，正在地圖畫線找路，那人卻又踱回來，「 如果你們願意，可以來我家住，就在前面樹林邊，跟我來。 」
暮色深濃染衣，夜風凜洌刺骨，停好車，走進那燈火黃暖，狗聲汪汪的磚屋，我有種聊齋之感。那人叫Matt，太太 叫Doreen，兩人都六十出頭，子女已成年，兒子在格 拉斯哥工作。「你們就睡他的房間吧。」Doreen又抱 來一床毛毯，房間小而整潔，家具是簡樸的松木，床頭有手 織燈罩，窗簾垂著流蘇。
Doreen添菜，燒了肉湯和豆子，邀我們加入晚餐，Matt喝了麥芽酒，談興更濃。原來這個鎮叫Kirkca ldy，是歷史悠久的煤區，Matt是個退休礦工，和大 部分蘇格蘭人一樣，他支持工黨，討厭保守黨，對人頭稅和 柴契爾夫人深惡痛絕。老汪和他聊起工黨，Matt對白高 敦（Gordon Brown）讚不絕口，引以為傲，「他是我們這裡長大的 ，好小子，遲早要做首相咧。」
第二天吃完早餐，我們拿出錢，懇切道謝，感激他們收留。Matt先是搖頭，後來虎起臉，Doreen收起笑，一 語不發，我們只得尷尬收回。臨走時，Matt遞來一本書 ，是白高敦的傳記，「哪，送你們，這小子好樣的，遲早要 做首相！」
車子上路，倒後鏡裡，Matt揮手的身影愈來愈小。又一次奇遇，聊齋之感縈繞不去，會不會一切都是虛幻，一回頭 ，後面灰飛煙滅，只見一片荒塚廢墟？然而那本書是實的， 牢牢握在老汪手裡。
歲月流轉，政黨輪替，白高敦果然當上英國首相，可是不得民心，黯然下台。原來政治才是聊齋，詭譎多變，魅異虛幻 ，唯有真善深鐫長存，他家鄉那棟磚房的溫暖，永遠烙印心 上，管它哪黨當家，又叫哪個國，我們都是蘇粉，永遠熱愛 蘇格蘭。
2014年9月18日 星期四
蘇格蘭夫婦的盛情(蔡珠兒)
珠兒夫妻這個故事是戴明著《新經濟學：適用於產業‧政府‧教育界》探討的心理學的Overjustifcation 例子。當時他們也許年輕，不然或許可以想出更創意、溫情的謝謝方式。
2014年9月6日 星期六
A Bias for Bonuses: What It Means for Your Paycheck
最近重譯Dr. W. Edwards Deming的作品，可以評論這類的新文章：它們都沒有基本的統計品質管制的基本學識，所以沒先弄清楚什麼是員工績效的"系統-分布"....
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/bias-for-bonuses/
A Bias for Bonuses: What It Means for Your Paycheck
Sep 05, 2014
MIC LISTEN TO THE PODCAST:
Ken Abosch and Iwan Barankay discuss bonuses vs. raises for employees
Expecting a salary raise this year? You could end up with a bonus check instead. More and more companies are moving toward giving performance-based bonuses instead of handing out pay raises unrelated to results achieved on the job. The trend is a key finding of the “2014 Salary Increase Survey”by Aon Hewitt, a human resources and consulting services firm based in Lincolnshire, Ill. Spending on variable pay among U.S. employers reached a record-high level of 12.7% of payroll in 2014—the highest in the 38 years that Aon Hewitt has conducted these studies. At the same time, salary increases for U.S. workers accounted for just 2.9%, reflecting a continued focus among companies on controlling fixed costs.
“Salaries tend to have a cascading effect,” explained Ken Abosch, compensation, strategy and market development leader at Aon Hewitt. He said the increasing emphasis on variable pay, including bonuses, has been occurring over the past 10-15 years and is not merely a response to the 2008 recession. “It is a quiet revolution,” he added. Wharton management professor Iwan Barankay noted that the balance between the salary component and variable pay reveals who has more bargaining power —and that employers are increasingly coming out on top.
Barankay and Abosch recently discussed those emerging trends and the takeaways for employers and employees on the Knowledge@Wharton showon Wharton Business Radio on SiriusXM channel 111. (Listen to the podcast at the top of this page.)
According to an Aon Hewitt news release, the survey found that 91% of the 1,064 companies polled currently offer a variable pay program that would make up 12.7% of payroll spending in 2015. By comparison, in 2005, just 78% of companies offered a variable pay program, which accounted for 11.4% of payroll. Improved financial performance and results seem to be driving the trend: Abosch said two-thirds of the survey participants reported meeting all of their performance requirements, and 18% exceeded them by 10% or more. “You see a correlation between performance, results and reward as opposed to some uncontrollable circumstance,” he noted.
“You see a correlation between performance, results and reward as opposed to some uncontrollable circumstance.” –Ken Abosch
Winners and Losers
According to Aon Hewitt’s survey, workers in some U.S. cities can expect to see salary increases higher than the national average in 2015. That’s good news for people living in Denver (3.5%), Houston (3.4%) and Los Angeles (3.2%). However, workers in New York, Minneapolis/St. Paul and Milwaukee should anticipate pay increases of 2.8%, lower than the national average, the survey found.
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Abosch noted that Denver and Houston lead the pack on pay hikes because of the concentration of energy companies in those cities. The energy industry is the leader in not just variable pay, but also salaries, he added. Other industries with the highest variable pay component are life and health insurance, entertainment and communications, and industrial machinery and equipment.
The industries that can expect to see the highest salary increases in 2015 include energy/oil/gas (3.8%), real estate (3.4%), telecommunications (3.2%) and pharmaceutical (3.2%), according to Aon Hewitt. The lowest increases are projected in education (2.7%), government (2.6%) and forest and paper products/packaging (2.6%).
The Chief Bonus Drivers
According to Abosch, employers’preference for bonuses is a result of the strengthening economy and some tightening in the job market. “Salaries represent a fixed cost and have a compounding effect, whereas bonuses are a lump sum payout, which have a one-year impact on the balance sheet.” Employers also see bonuses as a useful tool in motivating employees, he added. “[Also], shareholders and analysts like seeing that employees [have] skin in the game.”
“When you look inside a company at individual productivity, it is very skewed. A small fraction of the employees generate the bulk of the value inside a company.” –Iwan Barankay
Salary increases are not being completely pushed out, though, noted Abosch. After the 2008 recession, which saw the study’s lowest recorded level of salary increases at 1.8%, there has been some improvement. Average salary increases have since crept up to 2.9%-3% forecast for 2015, and Abosch predicts that they will stay at those levels for a while.
Barankay asked Abosch if the companies surveyed based their variable pay on performance or luck. “We know from past research that CEOs in particular have been rewarded much more for luck than for actual effort and their ideas,” Barankay said. Abosch agreed that “structuring these arrangements properly is critical.”
Barankay noted that the latest trends reveal that employers are gaining increasing leverage over employees. “If it were the case that the job market really picked up very strongly across the board, then you should see a strengthening of the base pay,” he said. “Instead, you see these performance-related pay [increases], which basically give a lot of money to those who perform the best. And that really reflects that employers have a lot of power at this point in time.” Twitter
According to Barankay, data analytics can be a powerful tool to separate what results are related to employee effort and which are a matter of luck. “Otherwise, we are left with a situation where employers are basically rewarding gambling, and people are performing well because they were at the right place at the right time,” he said.
The broader question for companies is to determine the kind of workplace they want to offer, according to Barankay. “If you offer a very individualistic, high-powered incentive structure where you will reward individuals for their performance, that could hurt cooperation and team spirit,” he said. “It you really want people to work together, to be innovative, creative and just be able to enjoy being in the workplace, then these high-powered incentives could be a drawback.” Twitter At the same time, he noted that high performing employees may not want to pull along underachievers.
“When you look inside a company and look at individual productivity, it is very skewed, meaning that a small fraction of the employees generate the bulk of the value inside a company,” he said. “Employees who know their worth …can put pressure on their employers and get [attractive compensation] contracts. For the firms, it will be a question of how they balance these conflicting forces— [creating] a nice, cooperative environment but also feeling the pressure from the highest-talent people in the workplace who want stronger compensation and bonuses.”
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/bias-for-bonuses/
A Bias for Bonuses: What It Means for Your Paycheck
Sep 05, 2014
MIC LISTEN TO THE PODCAST:
Ken Abosch and Iwan Barankay discuss bonuses vs. raises for employees
Expecting a salary raise this year? You could end up with a bonus check instead. More and more companies are moving toward giving performance-based bonuses instead of handing out pay raises unrelated to results achieved on the job. The trend is a key finding of the “2014 Salary Increase Survey”by Aon Hewitt, a human resources and consulting services firm based in Lincolnshire, Ill. Spending on variable pay among U.S. employers reached a record-high level of 12.7% of payroll in 2014—the highest in the 38 years that Aon Hewitt has conducted these studies. At the same time, salary increases for U.S. workers accounted for just 2.9%, reflecting a continued focus among companies on controlling fixed costs.
“Salaries tend to have a cascading effect,” explained Ken Abosch, compensation, strategy and market development leader at Aon Hewitt. He said the increasing emphasis on variable pay, including bonuses, has been occurring over the past 10-15 years and is not merely a response to the 2008 recession. “It is a quiet revolution,” he added. Wharton management professor Iwan Barankay noted that the balance between the salary component and variable pay reveals who has more bargaining power —and that employers are increasingly coming out on top.
Barankay and Abosch recently discussed those emerging trends and the takeaways for employers and employees on the Knowledge@Wharton showon Wharton Business Radio on SiriusXM channel 111. (Listen to the podcast at the top of this page.)
According to an Aon Hewitt news release, the survey found that 91% of the 1,064 companies polled currently offer a variable pay program that would make up 12.7% of payroll spending in 2015. By comparison, in 2005, just 78% of companies offered a variable pay program, which accounted for 11.4% of payroll. Improved financial performance and results seem to be driving the trend: Abosch said two-thirds of the survey participants reported meeting all of their performance requirements, and 18% exceeded them by 10% or more. “You see a correlation between performance, results and reward as opposed to some uncontrollable circumstance,” he noted.
“You see a correlation between performance, results and reward as opposed to some uncontrollable circumstance.” –Ken Abosch
Winners and Losers
According to Aon Hewitt’s survey, workers in some U.S. cities can expect to see salary increases higher than the national average in 2015. That’s good news for people living in Denver (3.5%), Houston (3.4%) and Los Angeles (3.2%). However, workers in New York, Minneapolis/St. Paul and Milwaukee should anticipate pay increases of 2.8%, lower than the national average, the survey found.
SPONSORED CONTENT:
Abosch noted that Denver and Houston lead the pack on pay hikes because of the concentration of energy companies in those cities. The energy industry is the leader in not just variable pay, but also salaries, he added. Other industries with the highest variable pay component are life and health insurance, entertainment and communications, and industrial machinery and equipment.
The industries that can expect to see the highest salary increases in 2015 include energy/oil/gas (3.8%), real estate (3.4%), telecommunications (3.2%) and pharmaceutical (3.2%), according to Aon Hewitt. The lowest increases are projected in education (2.7%), government (2.6%) and forest and paper products/packaging (2.6%).
The Chief Bonus Drivers
According to Abosch, employers’preference for bonuses is a result of the strengthening economy and some tightening in the job market. “Salaries represent a fixed cost and have a compounding effect, whereas bonuses are a lump sum payout, which have a one-year impact on the balance sheet.” Employers also see bonuses as a useful tool in motivating employees, he added. “[Also], shareholders and analysts like seeing that employees [have] skin in the game.”
“When you look inside a company at individual productivity, it is very skewed. A small fraction of the employees generate the bulk of the value inside a company.” –Iwan Barankay
Salary increases are not being completely pushed out, though, noted Abosch. After the 2008 recession, which saw the study’s lowest recorded level of salary increases at 1.8%, there has been some improvement. Average salary increases have since crept up to 2.9%-3% forecast for 2015, and Abosch predicts that they will stay at those levels for a while.
Barankay asked Abosch if the companies surveyed based their variable pay on performance or luck. “We know from past research that CEOs in particular have been rewarded much more for luck than for actual effort and their ideas,” Barankay said. Abosch agreed that “structuring these arrangements properly is critical.”
Barankay noted that the latest trends reveal that employers are gaining increasing leverage over employees. “If it were the case that the job market really picked up very strongly across the board, then you should see a strengthening of the base pay,” he said. “Instead, you see these performance-related pay [increases], which basically give a lot of money to those who perform the best. And that really reflects that employers have a lot of power at this point in time.” Twitter
According to Barankay, data analytics can be a powerful tool to separate what results are related to employee effort and which are a matter of luck. “Otherwise, we are left with a situation where employers are basically rewarding gambling, and people are performing well because they were at the right place at the right time,” he said.
The broader question for companies is to determine the kind of workplace they want to offer, according to Barankay. “If you offer a very individualistic, high-powered incentive structure where you will reward individuals for their performance, that could hurt cooperation and team spirit,” he said. “It you really want people to work together, to be innovative, creative and just be able to enjoy being in the workplace, then these high-powered incentives could be a drawback.” Twitter At the same time, he noted that high performing employees may not want to pull along underachievers.
“When you look inside a company and look at individual productivity, it is very skewed, meaning that a small fraction of the employees generate the bulk of the value inside a company,” he said. “Employees who know their worth …can put pressure on their employers and get [attractive compensation] contracts. For the firms, it will be a question of how they balance these conflicting forces— [creating] a nice, cooperative environment but also feeling the pressure from the highest-talent people in the workplace who want stronger compensation and bonuses.”
2014年9月1日 星期一
高階主管培訓； 「情境規劃」（ SP）詠嘆調
(這篇可能是1998年作品)
這要分兩部份講，一是高階主管的自覺，二是外來的智慧。
"自覺"，可以用前福特汽車公司董事長彼得森（D.Peterson）
所以日、美產生近似兩種組織型式。一是日系多採用「推行室」，
高階主管的學習方式，要看各公司的規模及理念而定。不過，
這種方式，奇異（G.E）公司有個著名學院。
這些做法及內因公司而異，例如1992年的杜邦高階主管會議，研讀的重點是「Leadership is an Art（領導為藝術）」等。其實，我們從這些可以了解各公司的企業文化及事業重點，因為事業因人成事，反過來，例如摩托羅拉強調「全球化經營的文化觀」、杜邦強調「有人性價值觀的領導」…。
「情境規劃」（ SP）詠嘆調
．無遠慮必有近憂？－兼論情境規劃及種種「以不變應萬變」
． The mind begins with actions.── Mary Follett
這次談話的目的是要簡介情境規劃（Scenario Planning）及由它引發的一些不同的看法。在管理上，
先談 Scenario Planning的目的。有的人說管理的目的是要預測（戴明），
情境規劃也不只像台灣的兩岸關係應對進退中，所謂的"七十二套劇
規劃是會有風險的。有許多的勢、利，是早晚必然會發生的，
因此，作情境規劃也一樣，主題必須是切身相關而又是優先的、
我想，戴明的淵博知識系統System of Profound Knowledge （本文以SoPK表示）的前提中，有所謂 "一種信念的合作精神，一種整體、攸戚與共精神，
上班族都是人在江湖中，即使"貴 "為通用汽車公司的總裁，或醜聞纏身的克林頓，
所以說，情境規劃的範圍愈大，愈久遠，
我從這兒切入公共行政學者所謂「混水摸魚（muddling through ）」式定政策方式吧！這種且戰且走的方式，似乎有點逼真呢！
情境規劃的優點之一就是它要編故事，編一套屬於我們自己的故事，
在《第五項修練實戰篇》中，有人又提出「專家系統」的做法，換句話說，我們是可以結合戲劇、人工智能（專家系統）、想像力（ 例如在情境展開中，我們可以大膽應用故James March 所談的The Technology of Foolishness中所言的五大法寶： Treat goals as hypothesis （把標的或目標看成是假說）
Treat intuition as real （直覺要當真看待）
Treat hypocrisy as a transition （不一致又怎樣？）
Memory as an enemy （記得也好，最好忘掉）
Experience as a theory （PDSA ））
其實情境規劃的創始人之一Wack是想要使主管在必要時可以改變其現實的心智 "design scenarios so that manager would question their own model of reality and change it when necessary" （英文 P.179中文？？）。由於 scenario是 design出來的，所以我們可以談情境規劃的科學與藝術。 目前，我們所看到的大都是藝術或情境規劃的「詠嘆調」， 很少有所謂的情境規劃科學，其實，司馬賀認為， 現在是可以考慮把策略規劃弄成專家系統了。請注意， 把情境規劃弄成科學，並不見得會失去它浪漫如詩的地方，正如 J. March說，會計人員不見得不可以用詩歌來分析數字的（ 1980年已有會計專家系統），同樣是 P/L，有人以為是 Profit/Loss有人以為People/Love 。
你以為情境規劃是什麼，它就是什麼。只要稍微想一下，遠瞻一下，
情境規劃以「嚴肅面對現實」（prepare seriously for what might have to face ）為起點。De Geus把情境規劃看成是「如何才能加速組織學習（ "競爭力 "共同模式的再造）」Can we accelerate institutional learning ？（.P.188 ）。如果你對商業知識不深廣，如何能與別人分享呢？所以據說用情境規劃的經理要有下述功力：
The ability to articulate your thinking on complex subjects ，to assimilate diverse views ，and to be both forceful and open.（ p.189）。也就是說，作情境規劃經理人要有戴明領導 14項修練。
David Bohem 說"language is collective"，這番話談情境規劃，
．羅馬俱樂部的《成長的極限》等書，是否為一情境規劃？
．池田有許多（數十部）與世界精英對話錄是否為情境規劃？
．你家有沒有情境規劃？
戴明哲學中，特別強調「品質始於董事會」，換句話說，
戴明又極強調培訓與教育。
戴明又極強調培訓與教育。
這要分兩部份講，一是高階主管的自覺，二是外來的智慧。
"自覺"，可以用前福特汽車公司董事長彼得森（D.Peterson）
「我們之所以爬到組織項層，「外來的智慧」是指戴明認為「可能都是『誤打誤撞』，甚至都是學到一些表面的、假知識（ 所謂的〝極有技巧地掩飾自己的無能〞），所以要向戴明博士學…」 （大意）
所以日、美產生近似兩種組織型式。一是日系多採用「推行室」，
高階主管的學習方式，要看各公司的規模及理念而定。不過，
這種方式，奇異（G.E）公司有個著名學院。
Debra Eller（1995）〝Motorala train VPs to Become Growth Leaders〞(HRMagazine, June)
M公司為了達成每年15%成長，展望未來全球局勢，
M公司為了達成每年15%成長，展望未來全球局勢，
該訓練所的規畫是要使每位VP都能有下述能力：
確認公司關鍵性領袖成功因素
討論最高經營主管對未來數十年領袖之期望（
檢視其個人在組織內受到的衝擊並善用自然的領導技能。
在公司內事業單位，群組間建立連擊網路。
開始18月的個人發展過程。
先有五天課程再由總經理檢討該公司的領袖剖面（心理分析）、
該公司請了下述的全球性專家來上課
全球多樣文化下的如何相處、成長
如何進入創造過程
確認公司關鍵性領袖成功因素
討論最高經營主管對未來數十年領袖之期望（
檢視其個人在組織內受到的衝擊並善用自然的領導技能。
在公司內事業單位，群組間建立連擊網路。
開始18月的個人發展過程。
先有五天課程再由總經理檢討該公司的領袖剖面（心理分析）、
該公司請了下述的全球性專家來上課
全球多樣文化下的如何相處、成長
如何進入創造過程
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